The average R you earn per trade over a large sample — the true scoreboard of your edge.
Expectancy is the mathematical average outcome of your trading system per trade: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), expressed in R. A system with 40% winners at 3R and 60% losers at 1R has an expectancy of (0.4 × 3) − (0.6 × 1) = +0.6R per trade. Positive expectancy over a meaningful sample (100+ trades) is the definition of an edge. Everything else — win rate alone, profit factor, a good month — is incomplete math.
Expectancy is the only number that matters. A 70% win rate system can lose money (small wins, huge losses). A 35% win rate system can print (small losses, huge wins). Do the math.
Your last 50 trades: 20 wins averaging 2.8R, 30 losses at 1R. Expectancy = (0.4 × 2.8) − 0.6 = +0.52R. At $500 risk per trade, that's $260 expected per trade. That's an edge worth scaling.
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